COVID-19 Realtime Forecast

Effective Reproduction Number (since 2020/3/6)

Latest data /: updated every day around 18:00 JST (the latest data is usually available one day later)

  • Analysis
  • A1 Forecast scenario
  • A2 Forecast scenario
  • A3 Forecast scenario
  • A4 Forecast scenario

Daily effective reproduction number since March 6, 2020, with 68% confidence interval. A1 forecast scenario (green), A2 forecast scenario (blue), and A3 forecast scenario (red) correspond to the decay shown by the green, blue, and red lines during the state of emergency (gray region), etc. A4 forecast scenario (orange) corresponds to the case where there is no decay.

Number of patients requiring hospitalization or other treatments (since 2020/3/6)

Latest data /: updated every day around 18:00 JST (the latest data is usually available one day later)

  • Observation
  • Analysis
  • A1 forecast (latest)
  • A1 forecast (past)
Date
Observation
Analysis
A1 forecast
  • Observation
  • Analysis
  • A2 forecast (latest)
  • A2 forecast (past)
Date
Observation
Analysis
A2 forecast
  • Observation
  • Analysis
  • A3 forecast (latest)
  • A3 forecast (past)
Date
Observation
Analysis
A3 forecast
  • Observation
  • Analysis
  • A4 forecast (latest)
  • A4 forecast (past)
Date
Observation
Analysis
A4 forecast

Forecasts of the number of patients requiring hospitalization or other treatments, with 68% confidence interval. The A1 forecast (latest), A2 forecast (latest), A3 forecast (latest), and A4 forecast (latest) are the predictions based on each scenario starting from the latest data. The A1 forecast (past), A2 forecast (past), A3 forecast (past), and A4 forecast (past) are the predictions based on each scenario starting from the past data. The gray region represents the state of emergency.

Number of patients requiring hospitalization or other treatments (since two weeks ago)

Latest data /: updated every day around 18:00 JST (the latest data is usually available one day later)

  • Analysis
  • A1 Forecast
  • A2 Forecast
  • A3 Forecast
  • A4 Forecast

The number of patients requiring hospitalization or other treatments (with 68% confidence interval) for the scenarios A1, A2, A3, and A4.

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Data Assimilation Research Team

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RIKEN Center for Computational Science (R-CCS) Data Assimilation Research Team

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