COVID-19 Realtime Forecast

The project has been completed on 31th March 2022. The last update is on 2nd April 2022.

Latest data /:

Effective Reproduction Number (since 2020/3/6)

  • Analysis
  • A1 Forecast scenario
  • A2 Forecast scenario
  • A3 Forecast scenario
  • A4 Forecast scenario

Daily effective reproduction number since March 6, 2020, with 68% confidence interval. A1 forecast scenario (green), A2 forecast scenario (blue), and A3 forecast scenario (red) correspond to the decay shown by the green, blue, and red lines during the state of emergency (gray region), etc. A4 forecast scenario (orange) corresponds to the case where there is no decay. Light yellow shaded region is a transition period when the parameters are updated: The incubation period is changed from 3 days to 1 day and the time between showing symptoms and being identified is changed from 5.2 days to 1 day.

Number of patients requiring hospitalization or other treatments (since 2020/3/6)

Tips: In the left-top legend box, date, observation, analysis, and forecast of the day corresponding to the position of the mouse are displayed. Horizontal range can be moved with the scrollbar.

  • Observation
  • Analysis
  • A1 forecast (latest)
Date
Observation
Analysis
A1 forecast
  • Observation
  • Analysis
  • A2 forecast (latest)
Date
Observation
Analysis
A2 forecast
  • Observation
  • Analysis
  • A3 forecast (latest)
Date
Observation
Analysis
A3 forecast
  • Observation
  • Analysis
  • A4 forecast (latest)
Date
Observation
Analysis
A4 forecast

Forecasts of the number of patients requiring hospitalization or other treatments, with 68% confidence interval. The A1 forecast (latest), A2 forecast (latest), A3 forecast (latest), and A4 forecast (latest) are the predictions based on each scenario starting from the latest data. The gray region represents the state of emergency.

Number of patients requiring hospitalization or other treatments (since two weeks ago)

  • Analysis
  • A1 Forecast
  • A2 Forecast
  • A3 Forecast
  • A4 Forecast

The number of patients requiring hospitalization or other treatments (with 68% confidence interval) for the scenarios A1, A2, A3, and A4.

Updates

  • 2022/04/02 End of update
  • 2022/03/29 Update of data analysis
  • 2022/03/08 Update of data analysis
  • 2022/01/11 Stop updating results due to confirmation of data analysis
  • 2021/12/03 Stop updating results due to confirmation of data source
  • 2021/11/11 Stop updating Japan results due to confirmation of data source
  • 2021/11/08 Update Japan results from Oct 29 to Nov 6 due to update of data source

Working with us

Please contact us if you are interested in working on cutting-edge data assimilation research.

Concerns about living in Japan? RIKEN has support for non-Japanese scientists. https://www.riken.jp/en/careers/newcomers/

Data Assimilation Research Team

7-1-26, Minatojima-minami-machi, Chuo-ku, Kobe, Hyogo 650-0047, Japan
RIKEN Center for Computational Science (R-CCS) Data Assimilation Research Team

E-mail: da-team-desk(please remove here)@ml.riken.jp

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