Initial observation impact assessment of GOES/GLM lightning in NOAA/NCEP systems
In an effort to advance the operational weather forecasting enterprise and to evaluate the benefit of the incorporation of the GOES-16,17/Global Lightning Mapper into the operational data stream at NOAA/NCEP, we have incorporated two observation operators for the assimilation of lightning flash rate into the NCEP/Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation system by following a variational methodology, which includes a nonlinear observation operator, subsequent linearization, and development of an adjoint model. The first observation operator is suitable for the NCEP/Global Data Assimilation System and accounts for the global model’s intrinsic coarse-resolution and simplified cloud microphysics, in which convection cannot be resolved, therefore, evaluating the impact of lightning in the initial conditions of the large-scale environment. Secondly, in preparation for “Next-Gen” operational data assimilation and prediction systems at Convection Allowing Model (CAM) resolutions, the second observation operator for lightning flash rate is appropriate for testing in non-hydrostatic, cloud-resolving models permitting the inclusion of cloud hydrometeors as additional analysis control variables. In this presentation, an overview of the data assimilation methodologies for the assimilation of lightning flash rate for the benefit of operational assimilation and numerical weather prediction and results highlighting the usefulness of lightning observations in the prediction of high-impact weather will be covered.
Dr. Karina Apodaca Colorado State University (CSU) and NOAA/Atlantic Oceanographic and Marine Laboratory (AOML)