P-8

ICON Data Assimilation and the simulation of the tropical cyclone Haiyan

Ana Fernandez del Rio, Daniel Klocke, Martin Kohler, Julia Keller, Alexander Cress and Roland Potthast (DWD).

Typhoon Haiyan made landfall on the 8th of November 2013 in the Philippines with devastating effects. In any such event, timely and accurate storm warnings are of key importance. The performance of the German Weather Service (Deutscher Wetterdienst, DWD) new global model ICON in forecasting Haiyan's track, minimum pressure and maximum winds will be presented. In particular, the expected strong dependence on initial conditions will be discussed, comparing and discussing the differences between using an LETKF to initialize an ensemble prediction system, and a deterministic forecast, both in the case where it is initialized using a deterministic 3D-VAR analysis or the LETKF mean.